Middle bet is a potentially very profitable situation that can occur in sports arbitrage betting.
A middle bet is a situation where if the match ends with a certain outcome, you can win both bets or get a refund at one and win the other.
Middles can be found in many markets but the most common are Asian handicaps and Overs/Unders. Although basketball is the most common sport, middles can be found easily in other sports such as football or NFL.
How much can you earn from Middle Bets?
Below are some examples of what are the types of middle bets in arbitrage betting.
Bet 1. Place 100$ on odds of 2.05 at -7 points for basketball team 1.
Bet 2. Place 100$ on odds of 2.05 at +7.5 points for basketball team 2.
- If team 1 wins with less than 7 points bet 2 wins and the total profit is 5$.
- If team 1 wins with over than 7 points bet 1 wins and the total profit is 5$.
- If team 1 wins with 7 points then bet 1 is refunded and the total win is 105$ (bet 2).
Middles like that can occur in other markets too such as overs/unders ( over 150 points with under 150.5 for example).
”Half middles” is the situation where you win the one side of the bet and get a half refund at the other.
Bet 1. Over 2.5 at bookie 1.
Bet 2. Under 2.75 at bookie 2.
If the match ends with 3 goals you win bet 1 and get the half stake back at bet 2.
This is the most profitable situation at arbitrage betting. Here if the match ends with a specific outcome you can win both bets.
Bet 1. Over 150.5 points at bookie 1.
Bet 2. Under 151.5 points at bookie 1.
If the match ends with 151 points then you have won both bets.
Most of the time you will not find an arb situation which is also a middle as we saw in the first example. When the combination of bets leaves as with a negative arb percentage then that middle bet is called negative.
If we change the odds in the first example to 1.98 then we have the following possible outcomes.
- If team 1 wins with less than 7 points bet 2 wins and the total loss is 2$.
- If team 1 wins with over than 7 points bet 1 wins and the total loss is 2$.
- If team 1 wins with 7 points then bet 1 is refunded and the total win is 98$ (bet 2).
This is a -2% arb but if you hit the middle the profits are huge. The profits that you make worth taking negative arbs in the long run.
When betting on negative middles the bets you are taking have no value. That means that you can stay under the radar for a longer period as bookmakers will consider you as a regular punter.
Unlike the other type of middles where you want a specific result, at polish middles you need an exact outcome NOT to happen to win. Below is an example to illustrate that condition better.
Bet 1. 75$ at odds of 1.60 at Draw No Bet for team 2 to win at 1st half.
Bet 2. 24$ at odds of 5 for team 1 to win at 1st half.
Let’s see all the possible outcomes:
- If team 2 wins the 1st half you end with a total profit of 21.
- If team 1 wins the 1st half you end with a total profit of 21.
- If the first half ends at a draw then you are getting a refund at bet 1 and lose the whole stake (-24$) at bet 2.
So basically you are betting against the first half draw at value odds.
Polish middles should be handled with care as the losses can be high. Their biggest advantage is that they can be used when you have been limited by bookies to small stakes. Since the potential profits are much higher than the original arbs, smaller stakes can be used to achieve high returns.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of middle bets?
Betting on middles can be a very lucrative form of betting if done right. The main advantages of this type of betting are:
- Stake restrictions. If you are restricted from betting with large amounts on a specific bookmaker you can place middle bets in that account, thus increasing its longevity.
- Bookie limitations. The odds that you are taking are not obvious arbs so you can stay under the radar for longer periods, thus avoiding fast bookmaker limitations on stakes allowed.
- Low risk. One of the main risks of arbitrage betting is the high possibility of making individual errors when placing bets. If you do make an error when placing a middle bet this will not be that costly as the staking is considerably lower than that of a typical arb bet.
- Bet longevity. Middle bets are not that time-sensitive as the regular arb bets. So you will have more time available to make the appropriate calculation, log in to bookmakers and place the bets.
- Bookmaker bonuses. By placing many middle bets you can easily cover the bonus rollover requirements without having to place straight bets. Not only you can pocket the whole bonus but you can also hit some middles in the way.
On the other hand, the main disadvantage of middle bets is that they are not totally risk-free if you are betting on negative or polish middles. So you may end up losing several bets in a row before hitting a profitable one. A proper betting mindset is required in order to cope with a potential run of losing bets.
Furthermore, middle bets may require more complex calculations (polish middles) and that can be difficult if the odds are moving fast.
How to find Middle Bets?
As with every arbitrage bet, finding potential bet combinations can be a challenge. The same happens with middle bets. You may end up searching for hours in the bookmaker sites without finding any possible bets.
Also, the calculations and the combination of markets are not that straightforward. The majority of middle bets include handicap markets and many bettors are not familiarized with the way those markets work.
For those reasons, the use of a surebet finder service can be crucial in your overall profitability. Providing middle bets is one of the key factors to consider when choosing an arb finder service.
Rebelbetting is one of the most popular services and the best tool for finding middle bets. You will find many possible bets, especially in basketball asian handicap.
You can read more about Rebelbetting in my detailed Rebelbetting review.
Betburger is a tool that covers a huge variety of arbs and markers. You will get many possible middle bet combinations every day.
You can read more about BetBurger in my detailed Betburger review.
Oddstorm is a service that is focused a lot on middle ards and is the only along with Arbmate that offers polish middles. It only covers the football markets though. If you like polish middles then this is the service for you.
You can read more about Oddstorm in my detailed Oddstorm review.
Arbmate is a lighter and cheaper version of Oddstorm as it will let you choose the bookmakers you want and pay only for them. It also covers only the football markets with fewer bets available. It is a cost-effective option for those that are liking polish middles.
You can read more about Arbmate in my detailed Arbmate review.
Betting on middles can be highly profitable in the long run. They are risk-free bets with high potential returns. The fact that small stakes can be used makes them suitable for newbies and also for those who have faced bookie limitations. Therefore, I strongly suggest that you explore that type of betting.
I hope that you have found my article useful and informative. If so, feel free to share it or leave a comment below.