Many bettors use a strategy known as double chance betting to increase their probability of picking the winning outcome of a particular match. This strategy basically involves picking two of the three possible outcomes (i.e., one team to win and the draw) and splitting the bets between the two, and can be quite useful when the punter is fairly certain that one team will not win.
Many bookmakers also offer double chance odds, where a bettor places one bet that includes the two possible outcomes (Team A/B to win + Draw), but the problem is that these odds are usually worse than the 1X2 offered for the separate outcomes. However, by using these double chance odds, you can easily calculate what you should bet on each outcome in the 1X2 market to earn a higher profit.
Double Chance Betting on the 1X2 Market
To help explain things, let’s look at an example of a match between Arsenal and Swansea, where you are sure Arsenal will win or at least draw. Looking at the market, you see the double chance odds listed as such:
- Arsenal Win or Draw: 7/20 (1.35 decimal odds)
- Swansea Win or Draw: 8/11 (1.73 decimal odds)
- Swansea or Arsenal Win (No Draw): 1/3 (1.33 decimal odds)
Using these numbers, we can see that if we bet £100 on Arsenal Win/Draw, we would get a total pay-out of £135, with actual winnings of £35 (total winnings – stake). Knowing this, we can now calculate how much we should bet on each of the two outcomes in the 1X2 market to earn the same, or better profit, given these odds:
- Arsenal: 23/20 (2.15)
- Swansea: 23/10 (3.30)
- Draw: 12/5 (3.40)
The easiest way to calculate what percentage of your total £100 stake you should bet on the two outcomes to earn the same profit is by simply dividing the total pay-out on the double chance odds (£135) by the 1X2 odds of Arsenal to win: 135 / 2.15 = £62.79.
So, if you’re betting £62.79 of your total stake on Arsenal to win, that leaves you with £37.21 to bet on the draw (100 – 62.79). Calculating the pay-out for this (37.21 x 3.40), we arrive at winnings of £35 if Arsenal wins and £26.54 if the match is a draw.
However, we already know that we would also win £35 on the double chance market, as long as Swansea doesn’t win. So, considering these odds, we would be better to take the double chance odds, as a draw on the 1X2 market would net us a lower profit, while it wouldn’t affect our pay-out on the double chance market.
You can easily find situations where the pay-outs will be more profitable betting on the 1X2 market—all it takes is doing these simple calculations to see which of the two markets offers you a better return based on the two outcomes. Both of these ways of betting are a great way for punters to hedge their bets by basically eliminating one of the outcomes, but it takes calculating the potential returns to determine which market you should bet on.
Using Double Chance Betting in the Real World
One of the biggest advantages of double chance betting is that it allows you to limit your risk, but it’s also a good way to compare the various odds from different bookmakers to find which market offers the best value. While our example may not have proved this true, in many situations it is more advantageous for the bettor to use the 1X2 market, rather than taking the inflated double chance odds.
Still, all of our odds were taken from the same bookmaker, and the real differences begin to become more apparent when comparing these different markets across various bookmakers, as you should easily be able to spot situations where you can easily turn a larger profit by betting on the two outcomes in the 1X2 market. All it takes is spending the time to do some quick calculations to find ways to make the various markets work for you.